As Bitcoin (BTC) continues its unprecedented uptrend, surging to a new all-time high (ATH) of $72,300, software company MicroStrategy remains steadfast in its vision. It is reaping substantial rewards from its strategic investment in the largest cryptocurrency in the market. 

MicroStrategy, led by renowned Bitcoin supporter and former CEO Michael Saylor, recently made a major acquisition, further solidifying its position in the digital asset market.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Investment Pays Off

According to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), MicroStrategy acquired approximately 12,000 BTC between February 26, 2024, and March 10, 2024, for approximately $821.7 million in cash. The average purchase price per Bitcoin was $68,400. 

Additionally, MicroStrategy recently completed an offering of convertible senior notes due 2030, raising $800 million in funds. With this latest acquisition, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings now stand at a staggering 205,000 BTC, acquired for $6.9 billion.

MicroStrategy’s stock trades at $1,557, representing a remarkable 9% gain within 24 hours. The company’s shares have demonstrated a sustained and continuous upward trajectory since February 26, coinciding with Bitcoin’s $50,000 consolidation phase breakthrough. 

Over two weeks, Bitcoin surged to its present trading price, establishing a notable correlation between the leading cryptocurrency and MicroStrategy. This correlation has further solidified the company’s strategy and contributed to its stock’s performance.

MicroStrategy’s strategic investment in Bitcoin has yielded remarkable results. The company now boasts a profit of $7.7 billion on its Bitcoin holdings, which translates to a remarkable return of 112% so far as Bitcoin breaks new all-time highs.

ETF Expert Astounded By Bitcoin ETF Success

The rapid rise of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has surpassed even the most optimistic projections. Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas highlighted the growth of these funds in a recent post on social media site X (formerly Twitter). The expert noted that assets under management (AUM) surpassed $55 billion, and trading volume reached an impressive $110 billion. 

Balchunas acknowledged that achieving such numbers in just two months was nothing short of “absurd,” far exceeding what would normally be considered successful even at the end of a full year.

In addition, in a surprising turn of events for the ETF expert, Blackrock’s IBIT ETF and Fidelity’s FBTC have emerged as the leaders among all ETFs in terms of year-to-date (YTD) flows through the middle of March. This unexpected feat positions these Bitcoin ETF offerings as major players in the ETF market, attracting the attention and interest of investors seeking exposure to the digital asset.

Currently, BTC continues its uptrend, aiming to solidify and consolidate above the $70,000 threshold, which would put the cryptocurrency in a good position to reach the $100,000 mark in the rest of the year. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, achieved a remarkable milestone on March 5. Attracting a staggering $788 million, it exceeded its previous record of $612 million in inflows in a single day. This surge in investment coincided with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of $69,300, surpassing its previous ATH set in 2021.

Bitcoin ETF Trading Volumes Reaches Record $10 Billion

Shortly after Bitcoin hit its new milestone, the market experienced a notable price correction, dropping below $60,000. However, this dip seemed to entice ETF buyers who saw it as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at a discounted price. 

As a result, the Bitcoin price has quickly recovered and reached the $65,200 level, positioning itself for further price gains and consolidation above its ATH.

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, the ten Bitcoin ETFs traded a staggering $10 billion in volume on the same day, breaking the previous record set just a week ago. 

The expert noted that this surge in trading activity is not entirely unexpected, as volatility and volume often go hand in hand with ETFs. Balchunas also highlighted that several ETFs, including Blackrock’s IBIT, Fidelity (FBTC), Bitwise (BITB), and Arkham (ARKB), achieved record-breaking trading volumes.

Interestingly, while the Bitcoin ETFs experienced a surge in inflows, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued its trend of outflows since the ETFs launched on January 11. 

Balchunas noted that GBTC has seen nearly $10 billion in outflows, yet its total assets under management remain unchanged since its launch. This phenomenon can be attributed to the bull market subsidy, wherein investors continue to hold assets despite outflows, generating revenue for the trust.

A Temporary Halt Before Further Gains?

Bitcoin’s recent price action has encountered resistance at its ATH level of $69,000, signaling a temporary rejection from this crucial point. This coincides with the activation of the Golden Ratio Multiplier, the first and only cycle top indicator to have fired thus far.

The Golden Ratio Multiplier, an indicator often used in technical analysis, has seen its cycle top band (level 5) rise to $69,099, aligning perfectly with Bitcoin’s recent peak. However, considering this is the sole indicator predicting a cycle top, some analysts, including Crypto Con, believe that a significant market correction may not have occurred yet.

According to Crypto Con, this current phase represents a temporary resting place for Bitcoin’s early parabolic ascent. Crypto Con suggests that once Bitcoin breaks through the ATH, it will begin a new phase characterized by heightened market activity and potential price gains. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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The demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has surged since their recent approval on January 10, with BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF leading the way. This ETF has reached impressive milestones in less than two months, attracting significant investor interest and opening doors for various market participants to invest in the largest cryptocurrency directly. 

As institutional and retail investors flock to these new investment vehicles, market experts predict a bullish trend and anticipate a potential price surge.

Bitcoin ETF Frenzy

According to Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas, BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF has quickly joined the esteemed “$10 billion club,” reaching the milestone faster than any other ETF, including Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), noting that only 152 ETFs out of 3,400 have crossed the threshold.

Balchunas notes that IBIT’s ascent to this club was primarily driven by significant inflows, which accounted for 78% of its assets under management (AUM). This reflects the growing appetite for Bitcoin exposure among investors seeking diversified and regulated investment options.

In particular, the current trajectory of the ETF market paints a picture of resilience and bullish sentiment in the market. Equity ETF flows, and leveraged trading levels are positive indicators, although they have not yet reached the euphoria seen in 2021, Balchunas notes. 

However, Bloomberg’s new BI ETF Greed/Fear Indicator, which incorporates various inputs, highlights the optimistic outlook shared by ETF investors, as seen in the chart below.

On this matter, crypto analyst “On-Chain College” went to social media X (formerly Twitter) to emphasize the significant demand for Bitcoin as evidenced by its rapid departure from exchanges. 

In its analysis, On-Chain College highlights that Bitcoin ETFs buy approximately ten times the daily amount of BTC mined. At the same time, the upcoming halving event will further reduce the mining supply. The analyst predicts when demand will exceed available supply, leading to potential upward price pressure.

Highest Monthly Close Since 2021

Bitcoin’s recent market performance has caught the attention of wealth manager Caleb Franzen, who highlights the significance of the highest monthly close since October 2021. 

Franzen further emphasizes the bullish momentum by pointing out that the 36-month Williams%R Oscillator has closed above the overbought level for only the fourth time in history. Historical data reveals impressive returns following such signals, indicating the potential for substantial gains in the coming months. 

Additionally, Franzen notes the changing dynamics of the market, with increased institutional participation and the ease of retail onboarding through ETFs.

Franzen presents a compelling case for the bullish nature of overbought signals, urging market participants to view them as momentum indicators rather than signals to fade. Previous instances of overbought signals have resulted in significant Bitcoin price appreciation:

• February 2013: +3,900% in 9 months
• December 2016: +1,900% in 12 months
• November 2020: +260% in 12 months

While acknowledging diminishing returns in each cycle, Franzen highlights the unprecedented level of institutional participation and the ease of retail access through ETFs. 

Even if Bitcoin were to match the +260% gain from the November 2020 signal, it would reach a price of $180,000, surpassing Franzen’s minimum cycle target of $175,000. 

Ultimately, Franzen notes that bull markets are typically characterized by a rising ETHBTC ratio and a falling BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance). While these characteristics have yet to manifest fully, Franzen suggests that a multi-quarter rally in the broader cryptocurrency market may be on the horizon.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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In just over a month since their approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitcoin ETFs have swiftly gained traction in the market, posing a formidable challenge to the long-standing dominance of gold ETFs.

Bitcoin ETFs Gain Ground on Gold ETFs

The rapid rise of Bitcoin ETFs has led to a convergence in asset values, with BTC ETFs closing the gap with gold ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately $37 billion in assets after only 25 trading days, while gold ETFs have accumulated $93 billion in over 20 years of trading. 

In this regard, Bloomberg’s Senior Commodity Strategist, Mike McGlone, emphasizes the shifting landscape, stating, “Tangible Gold is Losing Luster to Intangible Bitcoin.” 

According to McGlone, the US stock market’s continued resilience, the US currency’s strength, and 5% interest rates have presented headwinds for gold. Moreover, as the world increasingly embraces digitalization, the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States adds further competition to the precious metal.

McGlone further states that while the bias for gold prices remains upward, investors who solely focus on gold may risk falling behind potential paradigm-shifting digitalization trends. 

Ultimately, McGlone suggests that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios by incorporating Bitcoin or other digital assets to stay ahead in the evolving investment landscape.

Bitcoin Rally Driven By Institutional Demand 

The success of Bitcoin ETFs is further demonstrated by recent data suggesting that the upward trend in Bitcoin prices is driven primarily by institutional demand. At the same time, retail participation appears to be declining.

According to analyst Ali Martinez, as the price of Bitcoin continues to hover between $51,800 and $52,100, there has been a noticeable decrease in the creation of new Bitcoin addresses daily, indicating a lack of retail participation in the current bull rally and highlighting the growing influence of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market.

However, market expert Crypto Con points out a significant shift in Long-Term Bitcoin holder positions, signaling a potential downside movement. 

As seen in the chart below shared by Crypto Con, the position change line crossed below -50.00 for the first time in over a year, a pattern that has historically occurred at critical moments in Bitcoin’s market cycles. These moments include the cycle bottom, mid-top (which occurred only once), and the start/end of a cycle top parabola (which occurred most frequently).

According to Crypto Con, this recent shift in long-term holder positions raises two possible scenarios: a mid-top or an imminent parabolic movement. Such a movement at this stage in the cycle is considered unusual. 

Primarily, it indicates that long-term Bitcoin holders are exiting their positions in significant numbers, possibly anticipating a market correction or a change in the overall trend.

Overall, the shift in Bitcoin holder positions and the decline in retail participation present contrasting dynamics in the current market landscape. While institutional demand continues to drive the price of Bitcoin higher, long-term holders appear to be taking profit or adjusting their positions. 

While BTC is currently trading at $51,800, it remains to be seen what the direction of the next move will be and how institutions will continue to influence the price action of the largest cryptocurrency as spot Bitcoin ETFs gain traction.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Amidst a significant surge in cryptocurrency prices, which propelled the total crypto market capitalization to a high of $1.93 trillion on Thursday, influential interest groups are urging the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to revise accounting guidance that imposes higher costs on US banks for holding digital assets on behalf of their customers.

Banking Trade Groups Urge SEC To Revise Crypto Accounting Rules

According to a Bloomberg report, a coalition of trade groups, including the Bank Policy Institute, the American Bankers Association, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, and the Financial Services Forum, sent a letter to the SEC on Wednesday outlining their desired changes. 

The existing guidance requires public companies, including banks, to treat cryptocurrencies they hold in custody as liabilities on their corporate balance sheets. Consequently, banks must allocate assets of a similar value to comply with capital requirements and protect against potential losses.

According to Bloomberg, the trade groups have requested the SEC to consider the following key changes:

1. Exclude certain assets from being classified under the broad crypto umbrella. This includes traditional assets recorded or transferred using blockchain networks, such as tokenized deposits, as well as tokens underlying SEC-approved products like spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
2. Grant regulated lenders an exemption from the current balance sheet requirement while maintaining the disclosure of crypto activities in financial statements.

The trade groups argued that if regulated banking organizations are unable to provide digital asset-safeguarding services at scale, it would negatively impact investors, customers, and the broader financial system. 

However, the SEC has defended its accounting guidance, citing the “unique risks” and uncertainties posed by cryptocurrencies compared to other assets held by banks. 

Limiting Custody Expansion?

The specific guidance in question, known as Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121, has faced criticism from banks since its publication in 2022. 

Lenders argue that the bulletin limits their ability to expand digital asset services for customers due to the associated high costs. Consequently, banks missed out on providing custody services for recently approved Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, with Coinbase emerging as the preferred custodian for the majority of ETF issuers.

The trade groups also highlighted additional challenges resulting from the guidance, including a “chilling effect” on plans to utilize blockchain technology for traditional assets. While the SEC described SAB 121 as non-binding staff guidance, it acknowledged that following it enhances disclosure to investors regarding firms safeguarding crypto assets for others.

As the SEC faces mounting pressure, there have been efforts by lawmakers to repeal the guidance.  A resolution was introduced in the House Financial Services Committee, spearheaded by Representatives Mike Flood and Wiley Nickel, while Senator Cynthia Lummis sponsored identical legislation in the Senate. These measures aim to remove the SEC’s authority in making rules that impact bank custody.

The outcome remains uncertain, as the legislation’s success depends on garnering sufficient support, particularly among Democrats and within the White House. 

However, the collective efforts of trade groups, lawmakers, and industry stakeholders could potentially lead to regulatory changes that alleviate the burden on banks holding digital assets, facilitating their participation in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

Furthermore, the recent endeavors undertaken by US institutions exemplify a growing interest and eagerness to adopt and invest in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. 

This heightened institutional involvement has significantly contributed to the swift success of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which gained regulatory approval merely a month ago.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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In the past 14 days, the Bitcoin price has displayed a significant uptrend of 14.5%, signaling a resurgence in bullish sentiment. This rally comes as Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been trading for nearly a month, with the market already factoring in this development. As a result, Bitcoin is back on its natural course, gaining momentum ahead of the scheduled halving in April.

Currently, Bitcoin has not only regained its bullish momentum after a brief dip to the $38,500 level but has also surpassed the $45,300 mark. It now edges closer to its 25-month high of $49,000, with the $50,000 milestone within reach. 

Achieving this level would significantly narrow the gap between the current price and Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) of $69,000. However, what are the main catalysts behind this uptrend, and how far can the Bitcoin price climb?

Reduction Of GBTC Flows And Net Positive BTC Spot ETF Inflows

According to the latest analysis by QCP Capital, two key factors are driving Bitcoin’s upward trajectory: 

Daily outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have decreased from $500-600 million to $100-200 million. Simultaneously, total inflows across all Bitcoin ETFs are now positive. This shift in the GBTC flows, and the emergence of net positive BTC spot ETF inflows contribute to the current bullish trend, according to the crypto trading firm’s analysis

Additionally, notable price movements have been observed around “spot ETF fixings.” Between 3-4 pm EST, QCP has recorded that the Bitcoin price tends to tick higher, possibly due to the one-hour observation window used by the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) to calculate its Net Asset Value (NAV). 

Conversely, downward pressure is typically observed after 4 pm EST as GBTC employs a point fix, leading market makers to sell around and after the fix.

Strong Performance In US Equities

Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and higher US yields driven by robust February Non-Farm Payroll data (353k actual vs. 180k expected), US equities continue outperforming. 

Companies like NVDA and META have rallied due to strong earnings and positive headlines. Underallocated investors will likely continue buying any equities dips as they chase returns. 

According to the analysis, this bullish sentiment is expected to “spill” over into BTC and Ethereum (ETH), further fueled by the upcoming BTC halving and the ETH spot ETF narratives.

Ultimately, the trading firm assesses significant interest in accumulators, which enable investors to purchase Bitcoin or ETH at a “substantial discount” to the current spot price. This strategy is believed to present an attractive opportunity for bullish investors looking to build long positions throughout the year.

Bitcoin Price Faces Strong Barriers On Its Way To $50,000

Despite the uptrend, notable resistance levels could impede further upward movement and potentially lead to a consolidation phase for Bitcoin. 

To assess the nearest-term resistances accurately, the 1-hour chart indicates potential price paths for Bitcoin in the coming days if these bearish thresholds are breached.

In the immediate time frame, the $45,500 level emerges as Bitcoin’s next resistance level. This level previously marked a correction in the Bitcoin price shortly after the introduction of ETF trading.

Subsequently, the next target would be the $46,600 level if the immediate resistance at $45,500 is surpassed. However, while these two thresholds may present challenges, no significant resistance levels are evident on Bitcoin’s hourly chart until the $48,500 level. 

This particular level represents the final hurdle for Bitcoin before reclaiming its previous high reached on January 11, immediately following the approval of ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Considering the combined factors of Grayscale’s reduced sell-off and the overall performance of the equity market, alongside renewed investor sentiment, Bitcoin could potentially surge to previous highs and even surpass them, marking new highs since the end of the crypto winter. 

The key factor to be seen is how Bitcoin’s price will respond when encountering these highlighted resistance walls and whether the buying pressure will be sufficient to propel Bitcoin back on track toward the bullish momentum observed at the beginning of 2024.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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In a significant development that could potentially impact the Bitcoin price, Arkham Intelligence data reveals that Grayscale, the manager and owner of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), has been sending a significant amount of Bitcoin to Coinbase since the launch of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on January 12.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Initiates Substantial BTC Outflow

According to the data, four days ago, Grayscale initiated the first batch of BTC outflows from their holdings to the US-based exchange in four separate batches, totaling 4,000 BTC, which amounted to approximately $183 million. However, the asset manager resumed outflows from the Trust to the exchange on Tuesday.

In a recent update, approximately three hours ago, the asset manager sent an additional 11,700 BTC to Coinbase, amounting to $491.4 million. This additional selling pressure could push the Bitcoin price to test lower support levels.

Furthermore, Bloomberg reports that investors have withdrawn over half a billion dollars from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust during the initial days of trading as an ETF. 

According to Bloomberg’s data, outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust reached approximately $579 million, while the other nine spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed inflows totaling nearly $819 million.

Investors Shift Capital To ‘Lower-Cost’ Spot Bitcoin ETFs

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted that investors may be profit-taking following the ETF conversion. The flow data provides valuable insights into the ETF’s performance following SEC approval. 

Although over $2.3 billion of GBTC shares were traded on its first day, the outflows indicate that a portion of that volume was due to selling. Seyffart anticipates that a significant amount of capital will enter other Bitcoin exposures.

The outflows from Grayscale’s ETF were somewhat expected. Bloomberg Intelligence had previously projected that the fund would experience outflows of over $1 billion in the coming weeks. 

Some of this outflow can be attributed to investors shifting towards more cost-effective spot Bitcoin ETFs. With an expense ratio of 1.5%, GBTC is the most expensive US ETF directly investing in Bitcoin. In contrast, the VanEck Bitcoin Trust, the second-most expensive fund, charges 0.25%.

On the other hand, other spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted nearly $500 million in the first two days of trading, while Fidelity’s FBTC received approximately $421 million. 

According to Bloomberg, these inflows suggest strong demand for Bitcoin exposure in physically backed ETFs, even beyond potential seed funding from the fund issuers.

Bitcoin Price Finds Support At $42,000

Currently, the Bitcoin price remains unaffected by the news of Grayscale’s transfers to Coinbase. The leading cryptocurrency is trading at $43,100, showing a slight increase of 0.8% over the past 24 hours.

However, since the commencement of ETF trading, it is important to note that the Bitcoin price has experienced a significant retracement, declining by 8%. This decline can be attributed to profit-taking and selling pressure, with Grayscale’s involvement being noteworthy.

In the event of a further drop in the Bitcoin price, a significant support level has been established at $42,000. If this level is breached, the next key level for Bitcoin bulls to watch is $41,350, followed by a potential dip below $40,000.

The market is eagerly observing whether Grayscale and its BTC selloff will continue and how this will impact the Bitcoin price leading up to the scheduled halving event in April, which many consider to be the main catalyst for the year.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin had earlier shown a sharp rally toward the $49,000 mark, but the asset was quick to retrace the entire surge as the Coinbase Premium turned negative.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Plunged Into Negative During Past Day

As pointed out by CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn in a post on X, the Coinbase Premium Gap has now turned notably negative after being mostly positive for the last few days.

The “Coinbase Premium Gap” refers to the difference between the Bitcoin prices listed on the cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair).

This indicator’s value basically provides hints about how the buying or selling behaviors on these two largest platforms in the sector differ from each other right now.

When the metric has a positive value, it means that the price listed on Coinbase is higher than on Binance currently. Such a trend implies the former platform’s users are participating in a higher amount of buying (or lower amount of selling) than the Binance users.

On the other hand, the indicator being positive suggests that Binance might be observing a higher degree of buying pressure at the moment as the price listed on the exchange is greater.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap since the start of the year:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has observed a sharp plunge down into the negative territory during the past day or so. Before this plummet, the indicator had been mostly at positive values since the start of the year.

There were a few dips into the red zone earlier as well, but the indicator only attained minor negative values during these drops. This time, though, the premium is down to significantly negative levels.

The price surges this year were being driven by the buyers on Coinbase, as the price rose every time the premium did as well. Coinbase is popularly known to be used by US institutional investors, so the green premium suggested that these large entities were buying, most likely in anticipation of the ETFs, which finally gained approval on January 10th.

A while after this approval, BTC went on to sharply rally toward the $49,000 level, but the asset’s run was very short-lived as its price plummeted hard back towards the price prior to the move, thus erasing all the gains.

The Coinbase Premium Gap had been notably positive alongside the surge, but the indicator then showed its plunge into the negative territory alongside this quick retrace. It would appear that some American institutional traders may have used the opportunity to harvest their profits.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been moving sideways since the quick rally and drawdown, as its price is still floating around the $45,800 level.

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