As anticipation builds around the potential approval or rejection of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on January 5, the Bitcoin price has witnessed a notable 2.7% recovery in the past 24 hours. 

This development comes amidst growing speculation about the patterns that could drive the Bitcoin price to reclaim the highs lost during the bear market in 2022. 

Notably, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified an ascending parallel channel as the governing pattern behind the Bitcoin price action since September 2023.

Bitcoin Price Faces Crucial Test At $48,000

According to Ali Martinez’s analysis, Bitcoin prices have exhibited a consistent pattern known as an ascending parallel channel. 

This technical formation suggests that the BTC’s price has been trading within the confines of a channel characterized by an upper and lower boundary, as seen in the chart below.

BTC could experience further price movement within the defined boundaries if the ascending parallel channel pattern holds. 

The price is expected to advance toward the upper boundary, which currently resides around $48,000. However, the Bitcoin price is anticipated to face resistance at this level and retrace towards the lower boundary at approximately $34,000. 

Following the retracement, a rebound toward the upper boundary, potentially reaching around $57,000, could be expected.

The upcoming decision by the SEC regarding spot Bitcoin ETF applications adds a layer of significance to Bitcoin’s price movement. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs has been a subject of great interest within the cryptocurrency community, as it can enhance liquidity and provide greater legitimacy to the cryptocurrency market. 

While the outcome of the SEC decision remains uncertain, the ascending parallel channel pattern reveals a compelling technical perspective that could impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

Critical Moment For BTC? 

Supporting the upside potential of the Bitcoin price in Martinez’s analysis, crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlights the importance of BTC’s ability to establish a strong support level at $43,900.

According to Rekt Capital’s analysis, Bitcoin is exhibiting promising signs as it strives to reclaim the top of the pattern at $43,900 as a support level. 

This level holds importance in determining the cryptocurrency’s ability to sustain upward momentum. Rekt Capital suggests that a daily candle close above this resistance is essential for Bitcoin to make another attempt at moving higher.

The successful establishment of $43,900 as a support level and a daily candle close above this resistance would signify a positive development for Bitcoin’s upside potential. 

It would indicate a renewed bullish sentiment and potentially pave the way for further price appreciation. However, failure to overcome this resistance level and ending up as an upside wick could hinder Bitcoin’s ability to sustain upward momentum in the short term.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin trades at $44,000, followed by a news-driven dip toward the $40,800 level.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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As the long-awaited deadline for a positive or negative decision on spot Bitcoin ETF applications approaches, Bloomberg reports that the BTC options market is seeing increased hedging activity as traders prepare for a crucial decision on January 10th.

The report indicates a surge in open interest for put options expiring on Jan. 12, suggesting that market participants are taking steps to mitigate potential losses in the event of a negative verdict by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding these index funds holding the cryptocurrency. 

Market Readies For Bitcoin ETF Verdict

The Bloomberg report highlights that the open interest for put options, which allow holders to sell Bitcoin, has seen a significant increase for contracts expiring on January 12. 

This surge in open interest has resulted in a higher put-to-call ratio for these specific options compared to contracts with expiration dates further out from the January 10 deadline. 

As seen in the chart below, the most prominent strike prices for the put contracts are $44,000, $42,000, and $40,000, respectively, indicating that put holders could exercise their options to minimize losses in case of a negative market reaction to the SEC decision.

The put-to-call ratio, considered a measure of overall market sentiment, stands at 0.67 for the January 12 options contracts, indicating a more cautious approach among traders. 

Ryan Kim, head of derivatives at FalconX, suggests that leveraged/speculative traders are employing Bitcoin put options to protect their leveraged longs, anticipating significant price movements in either direction. 

The higher put-call ratio for January 12 options further reflects the market’s desire for protection against a potential negative decision.

The surge in open interest for put options expiring on January 12 indicates a growing need for protection in case of an unfavorable ruling. While Bitcoin’s rally has softened the impact of its 2022 decline, market expectations for ETF approval may already be priced in, posing potential risks for the market. 

BTC’s Price Resistance And Potential Dip 

Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable rally this year, with expectations for ETF approval driving its price up by more than 60% since mid-October. 

However, the Bloomberg report suggests that the surge in demand for the anticipated ETFs may already be factored into the token’s price, potentially exposing the market to a “sell the news” scenario in the second week of January. 

Furthermore, QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto asset trading firm, predicts topside resistance for Bitcoin in the range of $45,000 to $48,500 and a possible retracement to $36,000 levels before the uptrend resumes.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $43,400, experiencing a 1% decline over the past 24 hours. Over the past 14 days, the cryptocurrency has shown a sideways price movement with a slight decrease of 0.4%. 

Given Bitcoin’s well-known volatility, it remains uncertain how the market will react as the looming decision and potential catalysts draw near, and how these factors will impact its price dynamics.

However, the upcoming decision is not the sole catalyst that can potentially drive Bitcoin’s price in 2024. The cryptocurrency is also anticipated to experience a significant catalyst in April 2024, known as the halving event. 

This event has historically resulted in an upward surge in Bitcoin’s price, and it is predicted to propel the cryptocurrency beyond its previous all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 throughout the upcoming year.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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The Bitcoin price experienced a notable downturn as selling pressure intensified, resulting in a decline of over 4% from its annual peak of $44,500. This downturn was further exacerbated by the loss of the crucial $42,000 support level. 

However, the largest cryptocurrency in the market received a substantial uplift from the US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which has spurred a rapid 1.8% surge in BTC’s value within the past two hours. As a result, Bitcoin has successfully recovered the $42,000 support level.

FASB’s Fair Value Recognition Brings Clarity To BTC?

In a significant development for the cryptocurrency industry, the FASB has announced new accounting rules that require companies, including prominent entities like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Block, to measure their cryptocurrency holdings at fair value. 

These rules, set to go into effect in 2025, allow businesses to capture the real-time highs and lows of their Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) assets, providing a more accurate representation of their holdings.

Under the previous accounting practices, companies were only allowed to record the lows, resulting in a one-sided accounting treatment that often led to reduced valuations and diminished earnings for businesses holding cryptocurrencies. The highly volatile nature of crypto values further exacerbated the issue.

The FASB’s new rules address these concerns by mandating the recording of cryptocurrencies at fair value, a measurement technique aimed at reflecting the most up-to-date value of these assets. 

Changes in fair value will now be recorded in net income, allowing companies to account for fluctuations in the value of their crypto holdings more comprehensively.

The positive news for BTC lies in the fact that the new FASB rules provide greater transparency and accuracy in assessing the true value of cryptocurrency assets. By capturing fluctuations in fair value, companies will have a more realistic representation of their holdings, enabling better decision-making and financial reporting.

Bitcoin, being the most widely recognized and valuable cryptocurrency, stands to benefit significantly from these changes. The recognition of its fair value allows companies to showcase the true worth of their BTC holdings, potentially boosting investor confidence and attracting further institutional interest.

Turbulent Times Ahead For Bitcoin Price

Following these recent developments, the Bitcoin price has successfully rebounded to previously lost levels, demonstrating heightened volatility after a brief consolidation phase just below $42,000.

However, according to CoinGlass’ liquidation heatmap, Bitcoin’s price may be facing further volatility that could lead to a significant amount of liquidation of both long and short positions. 

The liquidation heatmap from CoinGlass highlights substantial indications of liquidation leverage exceeding $200 million both above and below the current Bitcoin price. 

Of particular concern is the thick liquidation leverage below $41,000, as seen in the chart above, which, combined with the prevailing trend, could become a probable target for the Bitcoin price in the coming days.

Conversely, following BTC’s correction, additional liquidation leverage has emerged in CoinGlass’s heatmap, particularly in the $42,000 and $43,000 range of short positions. This added selling pressure has contributed to the retracement of the Bitcoin price.

This potential scenario suggests a potential price swing up and down before a stable continuation of either the downward or upward momentum. The outcome remains uncertain as to which side will give way first and what prevailing trend will shape the latter part of the year.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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In the countdown to the deadline for the long-awaited Bitcoin ETF applications by major asset managers worldwide, predictions regarding the rate of approval have significantly improved. 

Inside sources from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) indicate that Bloomberg’s initial 90% chance prediction of approval has now surged beyond 99%. 

This development has heightened the excitement surrounding this investment vehicle, which has the potential to bring substantial inflows of capital into the Bitcoin market and further amplify its year-to-date gains of over 153%.

Market Sentiment Soars As Bitcoin ETF Approval Probability Surpasses 99%

Andrew, an SEC insider, shared an update on X (formerly Twitter), stating that the 99% probability of a Spot Bitcoin ETF being approved is no longer deemed high enough. 

While acknowledging that nothing is ever certain, the source emphasized that the current likelihood of approval surpasses the 99% estimate from the previous week.

The sentiment in the market is clearly reflected in the price movement of Bitcoin, as it continues to establish new yearly highs and display unwavering bullish momentum. 

Currently trading at $42,900, Bitcoin recently reached a fresh annual peak of $43,400 on Tuesday. Over the past 24 hours, the largest cryptocurrency has surged by 4%, and it has witnessed a remarkable increase of over 14% in the past seven days.

It is worth noting that the prospect of a Bitcoin ETF being approved has captured the attention of investors and industry participants alike. If approved, the ETF would provide a regulated and accessible investment vehicle for institutional and retail investors, potentially bringing significant liquidity to the cryptocurrency market. 

The spike in approval forecasts to over 99% has further fueled optimism that this milestone decision is imminent. While nothing can be guaranteed, the growing confidence in Bitcoin ETF approval and the cryptocurrency’s impressive price performance underscores the potential for a significant positive impact on the market. 

As the final deadline approaches, market participants eagerly await the SEC’s decision, anticipating a potential game-changer for the Bitcoin ecosystem and its ongoing growth.

BTC Faces Crucial Range High Resistance

Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital has shed light on Bitcoin’s recent price action, emphasizing the significance of key support and resistance levels within a specific price range. 

In late November, Rekt Capital identified a range between $36,120 and $43,200, highlighting the importance of the lower boundary for a potential upward move.

Bitcoin successfully tested and held the range’s lower boundary as support, resulting in a substantial rally in recent days. The primary objective now, according to Rekt, is to revisit the upper boundary, known as the black $43,900 range high resistance, as seen in the chart below.

Rekt Capital underscores the importance of the black Range High resistance as a crucial reference point for Bitcoin’s price. During the parabolic phase of the 2021 Bull Market, Bitcoin managed to break above this level relatively easily. 

On two occasions, the cryptocurrency surged beyond the black level, with the first instance followed by a retest of the level as a new support, leading to further upward momentum. 

The second instance occurred later in the year when Bitcoin successfully retested the black level as short-term support before continuing its ascent.

However, late in 2021, Bitcoin lost the black level as support (first red circle from the left) and experienced a fake breakout above it, subsequently entering a multi-week downtrend. 

Rekt Capital highlights that Bitcoin’s historical performance suggests the cryptocurrency needs to successfully retest the black $43,900 level as support to pave the way for further upward movement.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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In a testament to its unwavering confidence in Bitcoin (BTC), MicroStrategy, one of the largest Bitcoin holding companies, has once again expanded its cryptocurrency portfolio. 

The company’s former CEO, Michael Saylor, announced the acquisition of an additional 16,130 BTC, valued at approximately $593 million. This strategic move comes as Bitcoin enters a phase of accumulation above the $37,000 mark.

MicroStrategy Adds To Bitcoin Stash

As announced, MicroStrategy’s latest purchase was made at an average price of $36,700 per Bitcoin. With this acquisition, the company’s total Bitcoin holdings now stand at an impressive 174,530 BTC. 

Throughout 2023 and previous years, MicroStrategy has consistently demonstrated its commitment to BTC, accumulating a substantial amount of the cryptocurrency. 

The total cost of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin investments exceeds $5.20 billion, with an average purchase price of $30,252 per Bitcoin. This significant investment reflects the company’s long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value and hedge against inflation.

As reported by NewsBTC, the company has reaped substantial gains from the recent uptrend in the overall cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin’s impressive price surge. With BTC experiencing a 36% increase since October, Microstrategy has now amassed over $1 billion in unrealized profits.

Notably, Bitcoin’s positive performance has directly impacted Microstrategy’s stock, traded under the ticker name MSTR. The stock has witnessed a significant surge in value, closely tied to the ongoing bullish momentum of BTC. 

On November 9, as Bitcoin reached its previous yearly high of $38,000, the price of MSTR stock also soared to an all-time high (ATH) of $533 per share. This milestone further proves Microstrategy’s successful investment strategy over the past three years.

Michael Saylor, a prominent advocate for Bitcoin, has been a vocal proponent of the cryptocurrency, emphasizing its superior qualities compared to traditional fiat currencies. 

MicroStrategy’s continued accumulation of Bitcoin reinforces Saylor’s conviction in its long-term prospects and serves as a testament to the company’s belief in the digital asset’s store-of-value properties.

Potential For Short-Term Pullback Looms

In a recent market update by the CryptoQuant author IT Tech, short-term insights on the Bitcoin derivatives market shed light on the current upward momentum and the potential for a minor pullback. 

According to the analysis, the ongoing upward momentum in the Bitcoin market heavily relies on perpetual movement. The rising price of Bitcoin has been a key driving force, contributing to the bullish sentiment. 

However, the Crypto Volatility Divergence (CVD) Spot indicator suggests a relatively flat movement in spot demand. This indicates that a significant increase in immediate spot demand may not support the current price surge.

In the absence of strong spot demand materializing in the market, IT Tech suggests a possible minor pullback in the near term. 

This potential pullback could be attributed to several factors, including profit-taking by traders or a lack of sustained buying pressure from spot investors.

The analysis also highlights the possibility of Bitcoin liquidations in the short term, which could indicate further upward movement to liquidate late short positions. 

This suggests that additional buying pressure may be from those who have taken short positions on Bitcoin. As these shorts are liquidated, it could continue the upward trend.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $37,600, showing a slight decrease of 0.5% over the past 24 hours. However, it has maintained a gain of 1.5% over the past seven days, indicating a period of consolidation for the cryptocurrency

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market have seen a significant uptrend, hitting a new annual high and surpassing $1.45 trillion, paving the way for potential gains in the final days of November.

Notably, BTC, the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has achieved a remarkable milestone, approaching the $40,000 level with a price surge to $38,400. 

The catalysts behind this recent surge include the anticipated acceptance of the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) within the next 45 days and speculation that BlackRock itself may influence Bitcoin’s price through significant buying pressure on Coinbase.

BlackRock Driving BTC’s Recent Price Surge? 

According to CoinGecko, the global cryptocurrency market cap currently stands at $1.5 trillion, reflecting a 2.05% change in the last 24 hours and an impressive 72.26% change compared to the same period last year. 

This surge in market capitalization has not only boosted Bitcoin but has also contributed to gains in other major cryptocurrencies within the Top 100, such as Blur (BLUR), which soared a staggering 27%, Mina Protocol (MINA), which gained 9%, and Bittensor (TAO), which has seen a 14% surge in the last 24 hours, to name a few.

Regarding the recent surge of BTC to a new yearly high, crypto expert known by the pseudonym “Crypto Rover” has shed light on potential catalysts driving the recent surge. According to Rover, the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF launch is expected to occur within the next 45 days.

In this regard, Rover’s analysis suggests that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, may play a role in Bitcoin’s recent surge. The speculation is based on the observation that a significant amount of Bitcoin buying pressure appears to be coming from Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, with the platform serving as BlackRock’s custodial partner. 

Promising Bitcoin Price Targets For Late 2025

Renowned crypto analyst Crypto Con has unveiled what he claims to be the most accurate Log Regression Curves for Bitcoin to date. These curves have provided insights into the future cycle top, an elusive aspect of Bitcoin analysis. 

According to projections derived from the curve matching technique, late 2025 could witness two potential price targets for Bitcoin: $130,000, referred to as Layer 6, and Layer 7, with a target price of $180,000.

The analyst says several models and projections support the $130,000 target, adding to its credibility. According to Crypto Con, even the most conservative estimate, known as Layer 5 at $94,000, seems less likely. 

Based on historical trends, it is improbable that the entire red band, representing potential price ranges, would fail during this cycle. Therefore, one of the projected targets is expected to be accurate.

Based on the available information, Crypto Con favors layer 6 at $130,000 as the more likely target for Bitcoin’s late 2025 price surge. This projection aligns with the Halving Cycles Theory, suggesting a timeframe of approximately 21 days from November 28th, 2025.

Bitcoin has undergone a recent pullback within the last hour following its attainment of a new yearly high. As of now, it is trading at $37,800.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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In a recent statement, Dennis Porter, the co-founder and CEO of Satoshi Action Fund, expressed his belief that the year 2024 will mark a crucial turning point in the history of Bitcoin. 

Porter’s remarks amidst growing anticipation surrounding the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the highly anticipated halving event scheduled for April 2024. 

According to Porter, these events, combined with the efforts of the Satoshi Action Fund, have the potential to impact the price and adoption of Bitcoin significantly.

Satoshi’s Plan To Establish The US As Global Bitcoin Leader

Satoshi Action Fund, a non-profit organization dedicated to informing policymakers and regulators about Bitcoin, has actively shifted the narrative surrounding the world’s leading cryptocurrency. 

The fund aims to promote “hyper-Bitcoinization,” a term coined to describe the widespread adoption of Bitcoin as a global currency.

One of the primary goals of the Satoshi Action Fund is to advocate for the passage of pro-Bitcoin legislation in 10 different US states by 2024. According to Porter, these proposed laws would protect individuals’ rights to self-hold and mine Bitcoin, positioning the United States as a global leader in Bitcoin adoption and mining.

Interestingly, Porter envisions a future where bipartisan legislation empowers Bitcoin and fosters the growth of an emerging digital asset industry.

Recent developments in the Bitcoin ecosystem further bolster Porter’s optimism. The halving event occurs approximately every four years and is anticipated to reduce the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, potentially leading to increased scarcity and upward price pressure. 

Additionally, the long-awaited approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has the potential to attract institutional investors and facilitate mainstream adoption.

BTC’s Path To New Heights

Renowned crypto expert Charles Edwards has boldly proclaimed that the recent liquidation of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) surrounding the crypto market will pave the way for a significant price rebound. 

Edwards believes that the culmination of recent developments, particularly the Binance news, will eliminate sources of FUD accumulated over the past two years.

The market has been gripped by panic triggered by headlines associating the term “guilty” with cryptocurrencies. However, Edwards suggests that the recent news concerning Binance should be viewed more as a settlement rather than a detrimental event. 

Edwards points out that five years ago, exchanges were not compliant with know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) regulations, whereas now, they have implemented these practices. Consequently, Edwards believes that the lingering FUD surrounding Binance can finally be restored.

Looking ahead, Edwards highlights several positive catalysts on the horizon for BTC. These include the potential approval of ETFs, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, expectations of lower interest rates, and the possibility of a recession leading to increased quantitative easing (QE).

Edwards concludes by envisioning a “Bitcoin liquidity atomic bomb” waiting to explode. With the elimination of FUD and a series of positive triggers aligning, the market is poised for a substantial rebound. 

The convergence of ETF approvals, the halving event, accommodative monetary policies, and a potential recession are expected to propel Bitcoin to new heights.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $36,500, experiencing a slight decline of 2.2% over the past 24 hours. 

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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In a recently published report by CoinShares, analyst James Butterfill delves into the relationship between inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and changes in the Bitcoin price. 

The report addresses the critical question of how much inflow into ETFs could be anticipated upon launching a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US and the potential impact of these flows on the Bitcoin Price.

Bitcoin ETFs Could Attract $14.4 Billion Inflows

Butterfill highlights Galaxy’s analysis, which estimates that the United States has approximately $14.4 trillion in addressable assets. Assuming a conservative scenario where 10% of these assets invest in a spot Bitcoin ETF with an average allocation of 1%, it could result in approximately $14.4 billion of inflows within the first year. 

Per the report, this would mark the largest inflows on record, surpassing 2021’s inflows of $7.24 billion, which accounted for 11.5% of assets under management (AuM). 

However, it is worth noting that in 2020, inflows reached $5.5 billion, representing a higher 21.6% of AuM, while Bitcoin’s price surged by 303% compared to 60% in 2021.

The report suggests a correlation between inflows as a percentage of AuM and price changes. Inflows coincide with rising prices, indicating that many ETF investors engage in momentum trading. Conversely, during periods of price stagnation, inflows have tended to moderate. 

However, it is important to note that exchange-traded product (ETP) investors do not necessarily lead price action, as evidenced by volume data indicating that ETP volumes represent an average of 3.5% of daily Bitcoin trading turnover on trusted exchanges since 2018.

Bitcoin Price Surge Predicted

By analyzing weekly ETP flows and their percentage of AuM, the report identifies a trend with a coefficient of determination (R2 ) value of 0.31, suggesting a discernible relationship between flows and price changes. 

Utilizing this trendline, the report estimates that the aforementioned $14.4 billion of inflows could potentially drive the price of Bitcoin up to $141,000 per coin.

Nevertheless, accurately predicting the precise level of inflows upon the launch of spot ETFs remains challenging. The report acknowledges the difficulty in determining the exact magnitude of inflows. 

It emphasizes that regulatory approval and corporate acceptance are gradual processes due to Bitcoin’s perceived complexity, which may require corporations and funds to build knowledge and confidence before committing to investment.

The potential wall of demand that could materialize following the introduction of a spot-based ETF is uncertain. While such ETFs offer portfolio diversification and enhanced Sharpe ratios, regulatory approval and corporate adoption may take time due to perceived complexities associated with Bitcoin. 

Ultimately, CoinShares believes that Corporations and funds may require an extended period to familiarize themselves with the asset class and gain confidence before entering the market.

All in all, the CoinShares report sheds light on the potential impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the price of BTC. While it is challenging to precisely determine the level of inflows and their subsequent effect on the market, the report suggests that launching a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US could potentially drive the price of Bitcoin to US$141,000 per coin. 

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating above the significant psychological level of $36,000. Over the past 24 hours, it has experienced a minimal decrease of 0.2%, while showing a 1.3% increase within the 1-hour time frame.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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