Toncoin (TON) has recently seen a notable price decline, dropping below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This breach of a critical technical indicator has placed the digital asset under bearish pressure, raising concerns among investors and traders. With the $6 mark now looming as a potential target, there is market speculation about whether the price will continue to decline or if a possible recovery could occur.

This article aims to inform readers about the potential implications of Toncoin’s recent technical breach by providing an in-depth analysis of its market performance, specifically focusing on the price falling below the 100-day SMA. It also assesses possible future scenarios for TON’s price movement, exploring whether the digital asset will continue to decline toward the $6 mark or if a recovery might be imminent.

At the time of writing, the price of Toncoin was trading around $6.75, up by 2%, with a market capitalization of over $16 billion and a trading volume exceeding $220 million. Over the last 24 hours, there has been a 2.01% increase in TON’s market capitalization, while its trading volume has decreased by 14.75%.

Breaking Below The 100-Day SMA: A Technical Analysis

After successfully crossing below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the price of TON on the 4-hour chart is currently showing a short-term bullish correction, marked by a series of bullish candlesticks. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency may eventually decline toward the $6 support level again, as it remains trading below the 100-day SMA.

Although the signal line of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart is attempting an upward move, it is still trending below the 50% level. This suggests that the current bullish trend may be short-lived, as momentum could shift from bullish to bearish, potentially driving the price towards the $6 support mark.

On the 1-day chart, Toncoin is attempting to retest the 100-day SMA by forming a single bullish candlestick after breaching below it. Following this retest, the cryptocurrency asset may resume its downward movement towards the $6 support mark.

Finally, it can be observed that the signal line of the 1-day RSI indicator has crossed below 50% and is currently moving towards the oversold zone. This positioning of the RSI indicator indicates a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish for TON’s price.

Conclusion: Assessing The Long-Term Outlook For Toncoin

Exploring TON’s long-term outlook reveals that if the coin’s momentum shifts from bullish to bearish, the price will begin to move downward toward the $6 support mark. When the price reaches this level and breaks below, it may move lower to test the $4.6 support mark and probably move on to test other lower support marks on the chart if the price breaches this level.

However, should Toncoin reach the $6 support range and experience a rebound, it could begin to move upward toward the $7.75 resistance mark. If the price breaks through this resistance, it may continue to rise, testing its all-time high of $8.20 and potentially establishing a new all-time high when this mark is surpassed.

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Toncoin serves as the native token of the TON ecosystem and has multiple use cases. The token like other native tokens such as Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) has been doing well, as it experienced a notable price rise, especially with the launch of Notcoin (NOT) recently. 

Based on TON’s past price movements, the token has successfully formed a Double-Top chart pattern, which is typically followed by a price decline. With a 10% decrease in the past day’s trading volume to $152 million the price of TON is indicating a bearish trend.

In the last 24 hours, TON was around -0.39% down with a market capitalization of about $15,52 billion and the price was trading around $6.44. TON, at the moment, is trading above the 1-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), but in the 4-hour time frame, it is trading below the range.

Technical Indicators Point Toward Sustained Downtrend For TON

From the 4-hour time frame, the price of TON is trading below the 100-day simple moving average, which is a clear sign that it might be poised for a bearish movement.

The 4-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also signals that TON might move bearishly as the MACD histograms are already trending below the MACD zero line. In addition, both the MACD signal line and the MACD line have crossed and are heading towards the MACD zero line of which there is a possibility they might move below it.

On the 1-day time frame,  it can also be observed that the price TON is showing signs of going bearish as it is attempting to move toward the 100-day SMA.

Given that the MACD histograms are trending below the MACD zero line, the 1-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence suggests a possible bearish trend ahead. Both the MACD line and the MACD signal line have crossed and are moving towards the direction of the zero line, as seen in the 4-hour timeframe.

Crucial Points To Determine Next Move

From TON’s previous price action, it can be observed that it has managed to create some highs and lows, which are key points in determining its next destination. 

Currently, there is one major resistance level of $7.677 and two major support levels of $4.688 and $3.34. If the price TON continues to move downward and breaks below the support level at the $4.688 mark, it might move even further to test the $3.34 support level.

However, if it fails to break below the $4.688 level, it will continue in its upward trend toward the $7.677 resistance level. Should the price break above this resistance level, it might move even further to create a new high.

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TON price rallied nearly 15% and traded above the $6.50 resistance. Toncoin is now showing a few signs of trend exhaustion and might correct gains.

• Toncoin jumped above the $6.20 and $6.50 resistance levels.
• The price is now trading above $6.50 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There is a key parabolic curve forming with support at $6.80 on the hourly chart of the TON/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
• The pair could start a downside correction if it declines below $6.80 and the $6.60.

TON Price Reaches $7

Recently, TON price started a strong increase from the $5.60 support zone. It climbed above the $6.20 resistance zone. It gained nearly 15% in a day and outperformed Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Toncoin traded close to the $7.00 level. A high was formed at $6.93 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is trading near the $6.80 zone and well above the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a key parabolic curve forming with support at $6.80 on the hourly chart of the TON/USD pair.

Immediate resistance is near the $6.92 level. The first key resistance is near $7.00. A close above the $7.00 resistance zone could spark a strong increase.

Source: TONUSD on TradingView.com

The next key resistance is near $7.20. If the bulls remain in action above the $7.20 resistance level, there could be a rally toward the $7.55 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $8.00 resistance.

Downside Correction In Toncoin?

If Toncoin price fails to clear the $6.90 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $6.80 level and the parabolic curve, below which the price might test the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $5.61 swing low to the $6.93 high.

The next major support is at $6.25 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $5.61 swing low to the $6.93 high. If there is a downside break and a close below the $6.25 level, the price might accelerate lower. In the stated case, the price could retest the $6.00 support zone.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for TON/USD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for TON/USD is now above the 70 level.

Major Support Levels – $6.80 and $6.60.

Major Resistance Levels – $6.90 and $7.00.

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Venture capital firm Pantera Capital has invested significantly in The Open Network blockchain. The news, announced on Thursday, resulted in a 9% surge in the network’s native token, Toncoin (TON), pushing its value above the $5 mark.

Pantera Capital Bullish On TON And Telegram Integration

In a statement, Pantera Capital expressed enthusiasm about their latest investment in TON. The Layer 1 network, initially conceived by Telegram and continued by the open-source community, can potentially introduce cryptocurrency to the masses due to its extensive usage within the Telegram network. 

Telegram, used by over 900 million monthly active users, is known for personal and group communication, community building, content sharing, and more. Pantera Capital believes that by leveraging Telegram’s vast user base and user experience, combined with TON’s growing ecosystem, the network could become one of the largest in the cryptocurrency space. Pantera’s announcement further reads:

We at Pantera Capital are thrilled to announce our latest investment in TON, a Layer 1 network originally designed by Telegram and continued by the open-source community.  We believe TON has the capacity to introduce crypto to the masses because it is used extensively within the Telegram network. 

The integration of TON with Telegram aligns with the platform’s vision of providing a “seamless” and “borderless” experience for peer-to-peer (P2P) payments within its user base. 

Tether’s Integration With The Open Network

As previously reported by NewsBTC, Tether, the company behind the largest stablecoin in the market, USDT, recently announced the launch of its USDT dollar-pegged token and Tether Gold (XAUT) on The Open Network. 

This integration further increases the potential for P2P payments within Telegram’s extensive user base, a prospect that Pantera Capital aims to capitalize on.

In addition to the investment in TON, Pantera Capital is actively pursuing the launch of a new fund, Pantera Fund V, to raise over $1 billion. This fund aims to provide investors with diverse investment options across the blockchain asset spectrum, encompassing startup equity, early-stage tokens, and liquid tokens.

The new fund has established a minimum investment threshold of $1 million for qualified investors, and the first close is scheduled for April 1, 2025. 

Insiders familiar with the matter have indicated that Pantera Fund V is anticipated to reach a similar size as its predecessor, which successfully amassed approximately $1.25 billion in capital two years ago.

Following the disclosure of Pantera Capital’s investment in The Open Network, the price of TON experienced a notable 9% surge on Thursday, reaching a current trading price of $5.09. This increase comes after a significant price decline, with TON dropping as low as $4.6 after reaching its all-time high (ATH) of $7.65 in mid-April.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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In the rapidly evolving world of cryptocurrencies, Toncoin (TON) has recently emerged as a focal point of discussion due to its notable price surge of over 8% within the past week. This increase has ignited renewed interest in cryptocurrency and sparked inquiries regarding the coin’s potential for sustained growth in the foreseeable future.

At the time of writing, Toncoin (TON) boasts an impressive price of $1.46, securing its position as the 14th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, around $5 billion USD.

Toncoin Technical Analysis

Taking a technical perspective, Toncoin’s price chart reveals several interesting developments worth noting. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 58.29, suggesting a balanced interaction between buying and selling pressures. This indicates that the market is in a relatively neutral state. However, the RSI’s upward trend over the past week suggests that bullish sentiment among traders is strengthening.

The MACD Level (12, 26) at 0.0287 further supports the bullish sentiment with a buy indication. Additionally, the Momentum (10) at 0.0417 reinforces the positive momentum, indicating an opportunity for further upward movement.

From a short-term perspective, the moving averages paint an encouraging picture. The crossover of the 50-day moving average (MA) above the 200-day MA suggests a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. This crossover is generally considered a positive signal, adding to the optimistic outlook for Toncoin.

Examining Toncoin’s performance over the past months reveals a nuanced story. While the cryptocurrency has shown resilience, recording a gain of 8.83% in the last week and 8% over the past month, it’s crucial to acknowledge its previous downward trend. Toncoin experienced a significant decline of 25.90% in the last three months and an even more pronounced drop of 40.74% in the last six months. These figures underscore the inherent volatility associated with Toncoin’s market movements.

More Gains Ahead?

In light of prevailing market sentiment and recent price actions, investors are presented with multiple potential scenarios. The bullish momentum witnessed in the short term may persist, particularly if the bullish crossover of the MACD indicator gains additional strength. However, a prudent approach is warranted, given the cryptocurrency’s history of significant downturns. It is advisable for traders to meticulously monitor critical support and resistance levels to make well-informed decisions.

Based on the current technical analysis, Toncoin (TON) is experiencing a positive phase, with indicators such as RSI, Stochastic, CCI, and moving averages reflecting a neutral to bullish stance. The market momentum and MACD level also point toward a potential upward movement. However, as with any financial asset, there are inherent risks, and market conditions can change rapidly. Staying informed and employing risk management strategies are crucial when navigating the cryptocurrency market.

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Toncoin (TON) has showcased healthy market status since the end of last week. According to historical data from TradingView, it witnessed a consecutive bullish trajectory from August 11, 2023, until today, August 16.

The upward movement drew the attention of investors, resulting in a price increment of over 12% gain in the past seven days. Notably, the latest developments within Toncoin’s ecosystem could be the reason for the market uptick in the past few days. 

However, TON’s market value today, August 16, is $1.44, representing a price drop of over 2% in the last 24 hours. With this current price, the asset is almost 19.7% up in the past 14 days, 7% in 30 days, and 17% in the past year. 

Related Reading: Best-Selling Author Touts Buy XRP Now, But This Price Is Crucial

Recent Development Within Toncoin Ecosystem Pushes TON’s Value

There have been a lot of events on Toincoin’s ecosystem attracting massive investor attention and investment. Today August 16, Toincoin shared a post on X about its Indonesia event in Bali slated for August 23, inviting the crypto community to join. 

Also, on August 14, Toincoin shared another update on expanding its ecosystem globally through the X platform. Toincoin shared that it has taken another step to increase its global reach by launching the network’s website in Ukraine.

This move shows the project’s commitment to increasing the asset’s adoption. Also, the team behind the TON projects wants to discover how Web3 teams could easily sign documents in Telegram. 

In its X post, the team behind TON wrote:

For those who will be in Lisbon this Thursday, August 17, TON Society Europe is kicking off its journey with an exciting offline event.

Earlier on August 11, the TON community, via its X handle, shared a tweet from a known payment gateway for cryptocurrencies, NOWPayments. 

The report noted that the payment service had incorporated TON into its technology to enable a seamless non-fungible token checkout from different marketplaces.

This announcement triggered a rise in the market value of TON, verifiably from historical data on TradingView. From the data, the digital asset kick-started its bullish trend on the same day the news was announced. 

It recorded a price gain from $1.259 to $1.302, reflecting a positive price change of about 3.4% in 24 hours. As the news spread, investors filled their portfolios with TON, despite the price decline of some other crypto assets.

Related Reading: SEI Token Breaks Into Top 100 One-Day Post-Debut On Major Exchanges

Toncoin entry into the NFT sector could have been the reason for the continued purchase of more TON tokens. Investors are hopeful that the digital asset’s value will appreciate in the future because of NFTs.

These new updates contributed to the positive market sentiment after the association with NOWPayments triggered the price gains.

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